Since the armistice of 1953, the world has apprehensively watched the never ending cycle of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula. With tensions growing to a new-found height, something seemingly as small as a leaflet could trigger a devastating war, and possibly will?

 

On Monday 14th October, the ministry in North Korea accused its southern counterpart of dropping propaganda leaflets disparaging the northern regime across its border via drones. Whilst between other countries this may be viewed as a small offense, the shared tumultuous history of the Koreas has led the DPRK to consider this slight as a “military attack”.

 

But the question to draw from recent events is, how seriously should these threats be taken? This is not the first time that North Korea has threatened imminent war, and it is doubtful that it shall be the last. Back in 2017, the North Korean military had issued threats over firing missiles near Guam, due to strengthening relationships between the US and South Korea. South Korea had allowed bombers to fly in their airspace to the disapproval of North Korea. In response, a statement from the regime even stated that “The US should think twice about the consequences”, insinuating a future conflict if the US did not withdraw.

 

However, despite these severe words, no war was provoked. In fact, the following year saw two seminal moments marking significant strides towards cooperation. North Korean president Kim Jong-Un met not only with former US President Donald Trump, but also with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. This marked the first time a North Korean President had entered the South. Therefore, it can be taken that many threats from the Northern regime are simply that, threats.

 

Recent events do show some similarities to previous threats, but it would be naïve to believe that recent provocations couldn’t lead to further action. The day after the accusations were shared, the North followed through on its preparations to destroy connection roads between the two states. Although the North said this was a measure for “inhibiting war”, the attacks so imminently after the threats leads us to wonder whether it is apocryphal. Even more so since North Korea has reinforced its

relationship with Russia by supplying them with 10,000 soldiers to aid their war against Ukraine. With Russia being a potent adversary to an ally of South Korea, the United States, this arrangement has proved alarming to the South’s government.

 

So was Monday’s threat another empty rhetoric or an honest declaration?

 

Though we will have to wait for further response to confirm, it would seem the North’s statement holds some truth. From North Korea’s military efforts to separate physical contact with the South and their alliance with Russia, the North’s intentions indeed seem to be pointing towards future conflict. In fact there seems to be no actions conducive to peace and it would be dangerous for the South to believe such statements. The possibility of reunification is bleak, whilst the possibility of war is emboldening.

 

Whether or not the statement is genuine, it is clear that South Korea is taking these proclamations earnestly and will not be caught unawares.